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Macro Update - RAPBN 2027: Making Every Rupiah Work Harder

2027 is no longer about spending more—it is about making each rupiah work harder The deficit narrows to 2.4% of GDP (IDR671.2tr) as revenue growth of 8.6% YoY outpaces spending at 6.6%, but the government still targets 6% growth. The adjustment is happening beneath the headline: the top 10 K/L budgets swing to 1.4% YoY from +38.5% in 2026, while personnel spending plunges 34.8%. The fiscal challenge has therefore flipped: after building capacity in 2026, 2027 must prove that a leaner budget can still deliver stronger growth.

EconomyJessica Tasijawa
Aug 20, 2026

Technical Analysis

• Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Rally enters a cooling phase Support: 6,406 & 6,363 Resistance: 6,554 & 6,616

StockMuhammad Nafan Aji Gusta Utama, CTA, CSA
Aug 20, 2026

Indonesia Daily Focus August 20, 2026

BI still on hold BI held the policy rate at 5.75% in Aug 26, in line with our and market expectations, as the Rupiah appreciated by 0.8% MoM to IDR17,855/USD and foreign portfolio inflows reached USD1.8bn, led by SRBI and SBN. The improving market backdrop provides BI with greater room to maintain its current rate stance despite Middle East uncertainty, while gradually shifting its policy mix toward targeted Rupiah stabilization and pro growth macroprudential measures.

Daily ReportResearch Team
Aug 19, 2026

Fixed Income Daily Update - August 20, 2026

BI held the policy rate at 5.75% in Aug 26, in line with our and market expectations, supported by the Rupiah appreciating 0.8% MoM to IDR17,855/USD and foreign portfolio inflows of USD1.8bn, led by SRBI and SBN. BI also broadened its Rupiah stabilization toolkit through i) a 12.5% FX swap hedging incentive for banks’ external borrowing and FDI with rollover flexibility, and ii) a 15% DNDF incentive alongside 10% incentives under LCT, reducing reliance on higher yields to attract FX liquidity.

Fixed Income Daily UpdateJessica Tasijawa
Aug 19, 2026

What's New

Technical Analysis

• Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Rally enters a cooling phase Support: 6,406 & 6,363 Resistance: 6,554 & 6,616

StockMuhammad Nafan Aji Gusta Utama, CTA, CSA
Aug 20, 2026

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Strengthens Wealth Management Services Amid an Increasingly Selective Market

PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia sees room for further strengthening in the domestic market in the second half of 2026, as external pressures on Indonesia begin to ease. The weakening of the US dollar and strengthening of the rupiah provide greater room for authorities to maintain stability while supporting domestic economic growth. However, investors still need to closely monitor various trade offs, particularly those related to inflation, exchange rate stability, fiscal credibility, as well as the quality of economic growth and corporate earnings.

NewsMirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aug 18, 2026

MSCI Removes GOTO and Downgrades CPIN, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Estimates Potential Outflows of Up to Rp1 Trillion

PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia assesses that the results of the MSCI August 2026 Index Review put pressure on the Indonesian stock market, following MSCI’s removal of GOTO from the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index and the downgrade of CPIN from the Global Standard Index to the Global Small Cap Index. These changes could trigger technical outflows, although the impact on the IDX Composite (IHSG) is expected to be relatively limited and more concentrated in the directly affected stocks.

NewsMirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aug 13, 2026

Research

Macro Update - RAPBN 2027: Making Every Rupiah Work Harder

2027 is no longer about spending more—it is about making each rupiah work harder The deficit narrows to 2.4% of GDP (IDR671.2tr) as revenue growth of 8.6% YoY outpaces spending at 6.6%, but the government still targets 6% growth. The adjustment is happening beneath the headline: the top 10 K/L budgets swing to 1.4% YoY from +38.5% in 2026, while personnel spending plunges 34.8%. The fiscal challenge has therefore flipped: after building capacity in 2026, 2027 must prove that a leaner budget can still deliver stronger growth.

EconomyJessica Tasijawa
DownloadAug 20, 2026

Indonesia Daily Focus August 20, 2026

BI still on hold BI held the policy rate at 5.75% in Aug 26, in line with our and market expectations, as the Rupiah appreciated by 0.8% MoM to IDR17,855/USD and foreign portfolio inflows reached USD1.8bn, led by SRBI and SBN. The improving market backdrop provides BI with greater room to maintain its current rate stance despite Middle East uncertainty, while gradually shifting its policy mix toward targeted Rupiah stabilization and pro growth macroprudential measures.

Daily ReportResearch Team
DownloadAug 19, 2026

Fixed Income Daily Update - August 20, 2026

BI held the policy rate at 5.75% in Aug 26, in line with our and market expectations, supported by the Rupiah appreciating 0.8% MoM to IDR17,855/USD and foreign portfolio inflows of USD1.8bn, led by SRBI and SBN. BI also broadened its Rupiah stabilization toolkit through i) a 12.5% FX swap hedging incentive for banks’ external borrowing and FDI with rollover flexibility, and ii) a 15% DNDF incentive alongside 10% incentives under LCT, reducing reliance on higher yields to attract FX liquidity.

Fixed Income Daily UpdateJessica Tasijawa
DownloadAug 19, 2026

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